Writing the work

How to write a risk or issue in a RAID log

A risk might hurt delivery. An issue is hurting delivery right now. The RAID log is where both live.
steps
9
named failure modes
5
definition-of-done criteria
6

How to write a risk or issue in a RAID log, in one paragraph

A risk is something that might reduce an outcome's value or move its date. An issue is something already doing it. Both are written the same way: one sentence of cause, event and consequence, attached to one epic, priced in currency, owned by one named person, with a date by which a decision has to be taken. Written well, a stranger can read it and act. If you cannot say what value is exposed and by how much, you have written a worry, not a risk.

That is the procedure. The call is where it meets your delivery structure.

Talk it through

What these are. The delivery operating model our engagements install alongside client teams: the method underneath the agentic work rather than the agentic work itself, published in full and free to use. It is written for the person running a quarter, not for a buyer, so if you are evaluating us, read the five priced engagements or the case studies instead.

When to use this

The moment you spot something that could move a date, a number or a scope and you cannot resolve it inside the day. Also the moment an assumption you were relying on turns out to be false, whether or not it has cost you anything yet.

Time to run it once
About forty-five minutes, per entry
What you need
  • The RAID log
  • The epic the item attaches to

If you do not have those in place, the call is a good place to work out what comes first.

Talk it through
On this page
9 steps

Step by step

Each step is deep-linkable, so you can send a colleague the one that is in dispute.

  1. 1

    Classify it: risk, issue, bug, debt or dependency

    Classify it first.

    Ask whether the damaging event has happened yet: if it is ahead of you it is a risk, if it is costing time, money or scope now it is an issue. A defect in something already shipped is a bug and links to the quarter's Bug Budget epic. A shortcut that will slow you later is tech debt and links to the Tech Debt epic. Something another team owes you on a date is a dependency. Something you are relying on and cannot prove is an assumption. If it is work with an obvious owner and takes under a day, do it instead of logging it.

  2. 2

    Write it as cause, event, consequence

    Write one sentence in three parts: because [something verifiable that is true today], [event] may happen, which would [effect on the epic's value or its date]. For an issue, change the tense: because X, Y has happened, and it is costing Z. The cause has to be a fact someone could check, not a feeling. Test it by reading it to a person outside the team. If they cannot tell whether the event has already happened, or what it costs, rewrite it. Noun titles like vendor risk or resourcing risk give a reader nothing to decide on.

  3. 3

    Attach it to exactly one epic

    Attach every item to exactly one epic, or to the outcome above them when the threat spans several epics.

    Do not clone one risk across three epics: raise it once at outcome level with the aggregate exposure, or you will count the same money three times when you rank the log. The link is what lets a reader trace from the item to a currency target in one step, and it decides who reviews it and which quarter it sits in. If there is no live work to attach it to, it belongs on the company-level log, or it is an assumption rather than a risk.

  4. 4

    Price the exposure in currency

    Two numbers, then multiply.

    Value at risk is the share of the epic's planned contribution that is threatened, which is rarely all of it: a one-quarter delay to a £400k epic exposes roughly a quarter of the annual benefit, so write £100k and record the assumption behind it so someone can argue with it. Probability is your honest estimate in tens, because 65% persuades nobody. Exposure is the two multiplied. Sort the log by exposure and compare the top three against the epics they threaten. Anything worth less than a couple of percent of the outcome target gets logged and then left alone.

  5. 5

    Name one owner and a decide-by date

    Name one person, never a team and never a role.

    The owner is whoever can make the call, which is usually not the person who spotted it: if the response needs budget or a supplier conversation, the owner is the person holding the budget or the relationship. Then set the decide-by date, the last day on which a decision still changes the result. Work it back from the release window and from roadmap close, because an epic ships in one quarter and a decision taken after close has made itself. If the decide-by date passes, record which default you took and why.

  6. 6

    Choose a response and one next action

    For a risk, choose one of avoid, reduce, transfer or accept, and write the choice down.

    For an issue, choose contain, fix or replan. Then write exactly one next action with a name and a date on it, not three. Two rules keep this honest. A mitigation that costs more than the exposure is not a mitigation, so price the response before you commit to it. And accept is a real answer: a log where nothing is ever accepted is a log where everything is being quietly mitigated by nobody, which is how twenty amber items survive a whole quarter.

  7. 7

    Book the review point when you write it

    Give the item a review point at the moment you write it, or it gets reviewed when somebody happens to remember.

    Decide-by date inside two weeks: it joins the daily lookahead. Threatens the value of a live outcome: it goes into monthly outcome validation, where that number is being tested anyway. Everything else waits for roadmap close, where each open item is either carried into the next roadmap with a fresh decide-by date or closed. Patterns across items, such as the same supplier appearing four times, belong in the retro rather than in the log.

  8. 8

    Escalate by moving a number, not a colour

    Escalation is a number moving where people outside the team can see it, not an email with a colour on it.

    If the response is to descope, cut the epic's planned contribution and let the hole show against the outcome's target so somebody owns it. If the response is to move the work, the epic leaves this quarter's roadmap, because an epic lives in exactly one quarter. If the response is more people, name what leaves the roadmap to pay for them. Apply the test before you send anything: which number moved, and on whose screen?

  9. 9

    Close it with a reason

    Close every item with one of four reasons: the event happened, the event can no longer happen, we accepted it, or it was never real.

    Then record what happened to the exposed value: landed, partly landed, or lost. That second note is why the log is worth reading next quarter, because the pattern across closed items tells you which risks your organisation habitually underprices. Record it where the answer is embarrassing, especially there. Count closures at roadmap close: a log that closed fewer items than it opened all quarter is an archive, not a management tool.

Bring a real piece of work to the call and we will walk it through these.

Talk it through
Worked example

Worked example: a payment SDK deprecation

Ravensworth Home is an invented online homeware retailer, and every number below is invented with it. Its outcome for the year is Reduce checkout abandonment, with a target of £1.2m in recovered revenue. One epic on the Q3 roadmap, One-page checkout, carries a planned contribution of £400k. In week two of the quarter the tech lead sees that the payment provider has announced the current SDK will stop accepting new integrations from 1 September, and the replacement sandbox has not been granted. Written up, it reads: because the payment provider closes the current SDK to new integrations on 1 September and we still have no sandbox access, the one-page checkout epic may not be releasable this quarter, which would push £400k of planned contribution into Q4. Value at risk is not £400k. A one-quarter delay costs a quarter of the annual benefit, so the team writes £100k and notes the assumption next to it. Probability, honestly, 60%. Exposure is £60k, which puts it second on a log of six items and above the three the team had been talking about most. The owner is the named engineering manager who can call the provider's account team, not the checkout squad. Decide-by is 8 August, because integrating and testing against a new sandbox takes six weeks and the last release window of the quarter is mid-September. The response is reduce, with one action: obtain sandbox credentials or written confirmation of an extension by 8 August, fallback of descoping to the existing SDK. On 8 August there is no answer, so the owner records the default taken and starts the fallback. On 12 August the provider confirms no sandbox until October. The risk becomes an issue on the same record, keeping its history, and probability stops mattering: the £100k is exposed. The team replans, cuts the epic's planned contribution from £400k to £300k, and the roadmap now shows a £100k gap against the £1.2m target in week seven of the quarter rather than in the last week. At roadmap close it is closed with reason: the event happened, value partly landed. The return on writing it properly in week two is nine weeks of warning.

Yours will look different. Thirty minutes is enough to see how.

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Failure modes

Where this goes wrong

  1. 01

    Tasks wearing a risk label.

    "Risk: we have not hired a second tester" is a piece of work with an owner and a date, not a risk. It gets logged because nothing gates the log, and it crowds out the two items that needed a decision from someone senior.

  2. 02

    Red, amber and green instead of currency.

    Colours cannot be summed, ranked against an epic's planned value or compared with last quarter, so every review turns into an argument about whether something is amber. An exposure figure ends that argument in one line.

  3. 03

    Value at risk set to the whole epic.

    Copying the full epic value into every item makes the log read as catastrophic and makes ranking impossible, so nothing gets prioritised. Most threats cost a share of the benefit, usually a delay's worth, and the arithmetic takes a minute.

  4. 04

    Ownership handed to a team.

    A risk owned by "platform" is owned by nobody. It gets discussed for six weeks without resolution, because no individual has been asked to decide and no individual is uncomfortable that it is still open.

  5. 05

    An issue that changed nothing.

    If raising it did not move a date, a scope or a planned contribution, it was a status update. Either the response was never chosen or the escalation stopped at a slide, and the quarter ends with the same number it started with.

Definition of done

Done means

  • One sentence in cause, event, consequence form that a reader outside the team can act on without asking whether it has happened yet
  • Linked to exactly one epic or outcome, with no duplicate copies of the same threat across sibling epics
  • Value at risk, probability in tens and exposure all recorded, plus the assumption behind the value at risk
  • One named person owns it, and the decide-by date falls before the release window and before roadmap close
  • A response chosen from the four (or contain, fix, replan for an issue) and exactly one next action carrying a name and a date
  • A review point set: daily lookahead, monthly outcome validation, or roadmap close

If you recognise one of those already happening, that is a good call to have.

Talk it through
If your team is AI-native

AI-augmented teams tend to surface risks during refinement and mid-build, when a story turns out to be bigger than it looked. AI-native teams have no stories, so items attach to the outcome ticket at epic level, and the risk classes shift. Watch for three in particular: test requirements that were never defined precisely enough for anyone to prove the outcome is met, completion reported by a model with no demonstrated user journey behind it, and supply risks with real dates on them such as model deprecations, context or rate limits, and provider pricing changes. Agents also generate candidate risks faster than a team can read them, so gate the log on exposure and keep the owner human. A model can draft the cause, event, consequence sentence and do the delay arithmetic; it cannot hold the decide-by date.

The two delivery modes, side by side →

Which mode your team is actually in is the first thing we establish on a call.

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The subject behind the procedure

Where this sits in a programme

The procedure is the same whatever you are building. These cover what it runs into when the thing being built is agentic.

If you want this run inside a programme rather than read, that is the conversation.

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Questions

When a risk becomes an issue, do I raise a new item?

No. Change the type on the same record so the history stays attached: the original cause, the decide-by date, the response you chose and the date it converted. Probability stops applying, because the event has happened, so the value at risk becomes the exposure. Raising a fresh item hides how long you knew, which is the part worth learning from at roadmap close.

How do I set a probability when I have no data?

Ask how often this has happened to you before in similar circumstances, and start there. Estimate in tens, get a second person to write a number down independently before either of you speaks, and take the higher one if they disagree by more than twenty points. You are not trying to be right to the percentage point. You are trying to rank this item honestly against the other things on the log.

Our board wants a RAG status. Do we abandon that?

Keep the colour as a presentation layer and derive it from the exposure, for example red above a set share of the outcome's target, amber above a lower one. Nobody argues about a band that a formula produced. Reporting rules of this kind sit inside the target operating model Tenhaw's founder co-led at HSBC Global Payment Solutions, designed and piloted for 500 teams, with global rollout due in 2026 and not yet rolled out. What you should not do is store the colour as the underlying record, because then the number that lets you rank and compare no longer exists.

How big should a RAID log be?

Small enough to review every open item at roadmap close in an hour, and if it is bigger than that, the entry bar is too low. Items with an exposure under a couple of percent of the outcome target are recorded and left alone rather than managed, and anything that is work with an owner and a date belongs in the backlog instead.

What is the difference between a risk and an issue?

The test is whether the damaging event has happened yet. A risk is something that might reduce an outcome's value or move its date; an issue is something already costing you time, money or scope. Both are written the same way, as one sentence of cause, event and consequence, attached to one epic, priced in currency and owned by one named person. The distinction matters because probability only applies to a risk. Once the event happens, the value at risk simply becomes the exposure. Check it is neither before you log it: a defect in shipped work is a bug, a shortcut that slows you later is tech debt, and something another team owes you on a date is a dependency.

How do you write a good risk statement?

Write one sentence in three parts: because of a cause someone could verify today, an event may happen, which would have a stated effect on the epic's value or its date. For an issue the tense changes, so the sentence becomes because X, Y has happened, and it is costing Z. The cause must be a checkable fact, not a feeling, and noun titles like vendor risk or resourcing risk give a reader nothing to decide on. Test the sentence by reading it to someone outside the team, and rewrite it if they cannot tell whether the event has already happened or what it costs. A well-written item lets a stranger read it and act.

How do you put a monetary value on a project risk?

Multiply two numbers. Value at risk is the share of the epic's planned contribution actually threatened, which is rarely all of it. A one-quarter delay to a £400k epic exposes roughly a quarter of the annual benefit, so write £100k and record the assumption behind it so someone can argue with it. Probability is your honest estimate in tens, because 65% persuades nobody. The product of the two is the exposure, and it is what you sort the log by. Anything under a couple of percent of the outcome target gets logged and left alone, which keeps attention on the handful of items that genuinely threaten the number. Tenhaw runs this arithmetic on its own engagements and publishes the method in full.

Who should own a risk, and can it be the person who raised it?

One named person, never a team and never a role, and usually not the person who spotted it. The owner is whoever can actually make the call, so if the response needs budget or a supplier conversation, it is the person holding the budget or the relationship. A risk owned by "platform" is owned by nobody, and it will be discussed for six weeks without resolution because no individual has been asked to decide. Give the owner a decide-by date as well, the last day on which a decision still changes the result, and if that date passes, record which default was taken and why.

How often should a RAID log be reviewed?

Item by item rather than on a fixed cadence. Book each entry's review point at the moment you write it, or it gets reviewed when somebody happens to remember. Three tiers cover it: anything with a decide-by date inside two weeks joins the daily lookahead, anything threatening the value of a live outcome is tested at monthly outcome validation, where that number is being examined anyway, and everything else waits for roadmap close, where each open item is carried forward with a fresh decide-by date or closed with a reason. Count closures at roadmap close as well, since a log that closed fewer items than it opened all quarter is an archive, not a management tool.

Is it ever right to just accept a risk?

Yes, and a healthy log uses it regularly. Accept is one of the four legitimate responses, alongside avoid, reduce and transfer. A mitigation that costs more than the exposure is not a mitigation, so price the response before you commit to it, and where the arithmetic does not work, accepting the risk is the honest call. Write the acceptance down and set a review point so the decision is revisited if the numbers move. A log where nothing is ever accepted is a log where everything is being quietly mitigated by nobody, which is how twenty amber items survive a whole quarter.

What should you do first when an issue is already costing money?

Pick the response and write it down: contain it, fix it, or replan around it. Then one next action carrying a name and a date, not three, because a list of five actions is a list nobody owns. Price the response before you commit, since a mitigation that costs more than the exposure is not a mitigation. At Tenhaw that call sits with James Rooney, who leads every engagement personally, because it usually needs budget authority. And make the escalation move a number rather than a colour. If the answer is to descope, cut the epic's planned contribution so the hole shows against the outcome's target and somebody has to own it. If nothing moved, what you sent was a status update.

How do you close a risk in a RAID log?

Give it one of four closing reasons: the event happened, the event can no longer happen, you accepted it, or it was never real. Then add the line most logs skip, what became of the money that was exposed, recorded as landed, partly landed or lost. That second note is the only reason anyone reads the log next quarter, because the pattern across closed items shows which threats your organisation habitually underprices, and it earns its keep in exactly the cases where the answer is embarrassing. If you cannot name which of the four reasons applies, the item is not closed. It has just gone quiet.

Do assumptions and dependencies belong in the same log as risks?

Yes, that is what the A and the D of RAID are for, but classify each entry before you write it. Work another team owes you by a date is a dependency. A belief you are relying on and cannot prove is an assumption, and the day it turns out to be false you have a risk or an issue, whether or not it has cost you anything yet. Keep the neighbours out: a defect in shipped work is a bug and links to the quarter's Bug Budget epic, a shortcut that will slow you later links to the Tech Debt epic, and anything with an obvious owner that takes under a day is simply work.

Should we log the same risk against every epic it affects?

No, log it once. Every item attaches to exactly one epic, and when a threat genuinely spans several it belongs on the outcome above them, raised once with the aggregate exposure. Cloning one risk across three epics counts the same money three times, so when you sort the log by exposure the top of the list stops meaning anything and the items that deserve attention get buried. That single link does other work too, putting the entry one step from a currency target and settling who reviews it and which quarter it sits in. With no live work to attach it to, it goes on the company-level log.

How do you set a deadline for a decision on a risk?

Work backwards from the release window and from roadmap close, rather than forwards from today. The decide-by date is the last day on which a decision still changes the result, so it depends on how long your chosen response takes to execute. In this guide's worked example a replacement payment sandbox needs six weeks to integrate and test, and the quarter's final release window falls mid-September, which puts decide-by at 8 August. Roadmap close is the second boundary, because an epic lives in one quarter and a decision taken after close has made itself. If the date passes with no answer, record the default you took and start the fallback.

Why does our risk log get updated but nothing ever changes?

Usually three habits have crept in together. Tasks are wearing risk labels. A line like "we have not hired a second tester" is a piece of work with an owner and a date, and it crowds out the two items that needed a decision from someone senior. Value at risk has been copied from the whole epic onto every item, which makes the log read as catastrophic and ranking impossible, so nothing gets prioritised. The response was never chosen, so the escalation stopped at a slide. Tenhaw runs the same test on itself, reporting a month that delivered no measurable value as a failed month. Check each open item. If raising it moved no date, scope or planned contribution, it was a status update.

How long should it take to write up a risk properly?

About forty-five minutes for an entry that matters, and a real entry bar is what keeps that to a handful of items a quarter. Most of the time goes on the arithmetic behind value at risk, and on working out the one person who can genuinely make the call. Those are the two parts that pay. At Tenhaw this is work for the two or three senior people on the engagement. In this guide's worked example, a payment SDK deprecation spotted in week two is priced at £100k of value at risk at 60% probability, so £60k of exposure, which lands it second on a log of six and above the three items the team had talked about most. The return was nine weeks of warning.

What should a risk log cover when a model writes the code?

The same arithmetic, plus three classes of threat you would not have logged before. First, test requirements never defined precisely enough for anyone to prove the outcome is met, so nobody can say whether it is done. Second, completion reported by a model with no demonstrated user journey behind it. Third, supply risks carrying real dates: model deprecations, context and rate limits, provider pricing changes. Tenhaw publishes on GitHub the 72 rules it holds model-written code to. Items attach to the outcome ticket at epic level, because an AI-native team has no stories to hang them on. Agents will also draft candidate risks faster than anyone can read them, so gate the log on exposure and keep the owner human.